Emirate of Abu Dhabi

We forecast that real GDP growth will gradually recover from 2021, on the back of improving domestic demand and rising oil production after OPEC+ production quotas are lifted in early 2022. We expect regional geopolitical tensions will, on balance, have a limited impact on Abu Dhabi, and we expect continued domestic stability. Abu Dhabi's fiscal position is underpinned by the high level of hydrocarbon revenue and therefore continues to be affected by oil price and volume movements, despite government efforts to increase non-oil revenue. Contingent liabilities from government-related entities (GREs) or other emirates, although not contractual, could materialize in a highly uncertain regional and global economic environment. We expect the central bank of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will maintain

...Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Lower oil production and COVID-19 will contract economic output by 7.5% in 2020, but we expect a modest return to growth from 2021. + We forecast that real GDP growth will gradually recover from 2021, on the back of improving domestic demand and rising oil production after OPEC+ production quotas are lifted in early 2022. + We expect regional geopolitical tensions will, on balance, have a limited impact on Abu Dhabi, and we expect continued domestic stability. Abu Dhabi's key rating strength is based on its large fiscal buffers of more than 200% of GDP. + Abu Dhabi's fiscal position is underpinned by the high level of hydrocarbon revenue and therefore continues to be affected by oil price and volume movements, despite government efforts to increase non-oil revenue. + Contingent liabilities from government-related entities (GREs) or other emirates, although not contractual, could materialize in a highly uncertain regional...

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