Abu Dhabi (Emirate of)

This report does not constitute a rating action. Overview Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile We expect a modest return to economic growth from 2021 onward, but real GDP will only to reach 2019 levels in 2023. Abu Dhabi's fiscal buffers of about 250% of GDP underpin its creditworthiness. -- We forecast that real GDP growth will gradually recover from 2021, on improving domestic demand and rising oil production after OPEC+ production quotas are lifted in 2022. -- The emirate's fiscal position continues to be closely correlated to oil price and volume movements, despite government efforts to increase nonoil revenue. -- We expect regional geopolitical tensions will, on balance, have a limited impact on Abu Dhabi, and we

...Abu Dhabi's return to economic growth in 2021 has been supported by the return to relative normalcy in the UAE, thanks to the fast pace of COVID-19 vaccinations and because most lockdown measures in individual emirates have been lifted. New cases of COVID-19 and related deaths have been low relative to the rest of the GCC and globally. The UAE has fully vaccinated more than 85% of its population as of November 2021. The exceptional strength of the government's balance sheet provides a buffer to counteract the effect of oil price swings and the effect of COVID-19 on economic growth, as well as the effect of high geopolitical uncertainty in the Gulf region. From 2021-2024, we forecast the central government budget to be broadly in balance. Over the next three years, notwithstanding the largely balanced...

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