For economists, projections are a stock in trade. At Standard&Poor's Ratings Services, we publish our economists' best estimate monthly of where the U.S. economy could be heading. Beyond the projection of GDP and inflation, we include outlooks for other major economic categories, such as home and auto sales, employment, and oil prices. We call this forecast our baseline scenario, and we use it to inform all areas of our credit analyses. However, we realize that financial market participants also want to know how we think things could go worse--or better--than what our baseline scenario calls for. Any point forecast of the economy is going to be wrong; it is simply a question of how far wrong. At the
