Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereign Rating Trends 2019

S&P Global Ratings currently rates 18 sovereigns in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), up from 12 in mid-2008 and two in 2000, making Africa the fastest growing region for sovereign ratings over the last decade and a half. Overall sovereign creditworthiness within the region has slightly improved since our last regional publication (see "Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereign Rating Trends Midyear 2018," published on July 16, 2018). We have downgraded one SSA sovereign and upgraded two in the past six months. We lowered the long-term foreign currency rating on Zambia to 'B-' because of its rising fiscal deficits and debt burden. We upgraded Ghana to 'B' on improved monetary policy effectiveness, and Congo-Brazzaville to 'B-' on reduced legal risks of default and increasing oil

...- 2018 was a record year for Eurobond issuance across our rated SSA sovereigns, amounting to $16.56 billion in total, but the second half of the year saw only $2.86 billion worth of issuance by Nigeria. We expect African issuance in 2019 will continue, but at a more moderate pace than in 2018. - In the second half of 2018, the region's ratings trajectory was slightly positive. We downgraded Zambia, but upgraded Ghana and Congo-Brazzaville. - We revised one outlook in second-half 2018 and assigned one new outlook after taking a rating action. We revised the outlook on Rwanda to positive from stable. When we upgraded Ghana, we assigned a stable outlook. - Average SSA debt burdens have increased substantially since 2011. We anticipate that slightly stronger economic growth and some fiscal consolidation will help stabilize debt burdens in 2019. However, exposure to adverse exchange rate effects on foreign-currency debt and tightening financing conditions as U.S. monetary policy continues to...

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