Gulf Sovereigns Will Find It Hard To Diversify Away From Hydrocarbons

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi (a member of the United Arab Emirates--UAE) currently benefit from sizable hydrocarbon resources, at close to 30% of global oil reserves and 20% of global gas reserves (source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017) relative to their population size (less than 1% of the global population). This large hydrocarbon endowment and the high income it generates has resulted in past general government surpluses, low government financing needs, and net external asset positions for most GCC countries. S&P Global Ratings incorporates these key strengths in its sovereign credit ratings on these countries. That said, the Gulf economies' high concentration and dependence on the hydrocarbon

...The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Abu Dhabi (a member of the United Arab Emirates--UAE) currently benefit from sizable hydrocarbon resources, at close to 30% of global oil reserves and 20% of global gas reserves (source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017) relative to their population size (less than 1% of the global population). This large hydrocarbon endowment and the high income it generates has resulted in past general government surpluses, low government financing needs, and net external asset positions for most GCC countries. S&P Global Ratings incorporates these key strengths in its sovereign credit ratings on these countries. That said, the Gulf economies' high concentration and dependence on the hydrocarbon sector, which averaged about 30% of GDP and 60% of total exports over 2015-2016--even considering subdued oil prices--could become a credit negative factor when not offset by substantial financial buffers....

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